There are half a million signatures in the anti-tobacco ban petition. That's 500,000 (yes five hundred thousand South Africans) who oppose this ban. BAT had a problem too with the ban and threatened to go to court, but now they have dropped their case (for now they say). Kieswetter has told parliament how much shit we are in and business is now starting to tell Cyril to look at the stark realities.
On Monday Cyril told us
Ramaphosa said while the government had announced a lift on the cigarette ban, it had consulted the public and decided to change its mind. "We are a listening government. As much as we may have decided on an issue, when our people raise concerns, we listen and re-examine our position and that is precisely what happened. It was done on a very controversial issue and we accept that. "There is nothing wrong whatsoever with any one of us changing our minds."
Why would BAT suspend their legal activity? It certainly isn't for the reasons offered in this statement
Batsa said on Wednesday that it was no longer taking its fight to court after receiving a response from the government to its formal letter seeking answers on April 30.
The Daily Maverick article really gets to the nub of the tobacco ban. The illicit economy is thriving. To the extent that it may be difficult for the formal tobacco economy to get back on its feet. This has massive repercussions for the industry and the government. Don't think merely about the tax revenue implications – we know that Shorty Fedora and PalofMazotti don't' give a shit about that, think about the potential legal battles that the government will face if it's found (and it will) that their lockdowns were illegal, irrational and have caused immense patrimonial loss to the liquor and tobacco industries. And that is what the government doesn't need. Ralph Mathekga explains this succinctly
President Ramaphosa's administration is not in a position to face off with angry groups in court. Government started well and enjoyed credibility in the first couple of weeks of the lockdown. However, government has committed some mistakes that have undermined its credibility in managing the lockdown. Among mistakes that have been committed are the use of excessive force in some instances, violation and disregard of lockdown rules by some members of Cabinet who have become undesirable characters. Government criteria regarding what amounts to essential goods that can be attained in the lockdown is also questionable.
There are some decisions that have been adopted and do not make sense as to which purpose they serve.
All this has pushed government to the corner, and the best option for government is to stop fighting hard and consider engaging with stakeholders and groups.
There are different groups that seek to challenge different aspects of the lockdown regulations ranging from religious leaders; the tobacco lobby; alcohol lobby; the grilled chicken lobby; etc.
Further, a group of lawyers have asked president Ramaphosa to explain the constitutional basis of the coronavirus command council, particularly where the council fits in in the broader chain of accountability in a constitutional democracy.
The last thing government wants to do is to unite the tobacco and alcohol lobby with the human rights groups against the lockdown regime
On that latter point, the Collins Khosa case is going to destroy all credibility that the police and military wished they had (and mistakenly thought they had). And I do agree with Pierre de Vos about the revulsion we should be feeling when it comes to Collins Khosa and the cops and military.
No – a deal has been struck. Ramaphosa's government can no longer treat us as children. The Khosa case (which will not doubt, very unwisely) be appealed. But the credibility is gone. BAT would not just forego their income because they now understand why the tobacco ban has been extended. They are not being paid out by Treasury not to trade because there's no money for that. I expect that Cyril will open tobacco and alcohol in the near future. He will also need to make sure that Shorty Fedora and that minister of defence – whose name is so irrelevant to me are brought into line. This deal is dependent on government delivering their side of the bargain - hence the suspension of the BAT court case. Government must know that they are simply fucked if it gets to court - as Mathekga says, it will open up the flood gates and then we're all fucked.
Government has to trust the people. It will go a long way to trying to rebuild the economy so that everyone benefits. Cyril is the only one that can do this. Knife-edge Cyril - and you are on it, history has already judged your rogue ministers, it still rather likes you.
Comments