There is reason to be cheerful. The news is full of reports of a zuma recall within the next week. Universities are on tenterhooks as the multitudes demand entry - all because Julius is trying to outpopulist zuma. And the matric results are pleasing (only if you are an IEB candidate).
Is it an opportune time to offer my predictions for this year? Of course it is, this is my blog.
- zuma is in a very tight position. He has a few choices available to him. If he sticks around he could face impeachment. The concourt has found that parliament has not held zuma to account. If zuma is impeached, he is thrown out with no benefits, and no state funding for his numerous court cases. If this doesn't go ahead (I am being very simplistic here) the opposition could call for another vote of no confidence. zuma sits in a very precarious position - he doesn't know who his friends are any more. The aNc is split and many zuma cronies may vote for this no confidence because they can see which way their own careers are going to head. Or zuma could resign within the next week. I don't think this is going to happen, he's too deluded, I expect a palace coup before the next state of the nation.
- Once Cyril becomes president of the country the aNc will start to align themselves towards him. He will build up his own powerbase and all those dodgy politicians will kowtow or be fired. I cannot see how the likes of zwane, butterbeelee, des, faith, mahlobadass and the like will retain their cabinet positions. abagig (gigaba) will be moved out of finance to some other aimless position which he will no doubt destroy. I am hoping that Pravin steps in as a caretaker for a year or so whilst Cyril tries to persuade Jonas or Nene to come back.
- What about bolshie bob. I think he's had enough - he's done all the damage that a commie can do to an economy. He has a decent pension for the balance of his life. He will be replaced soon - just not by another inept commie. In fact not by anyone inept. We are going to be paying for his dogma and incompetence for many years to come.
- With Cyril in charge we can expect a better relationship between government and business. Selfishly, I am hoping that a better understanding of what this economy needs is finally agreed upon. The matric results are an express admission that this government has failed the youth. They want to get those people out of the school system because they cannot do anything with them. Can you imagine finishing school with a "matric" but you are still functionally illiterate and innumerate? Many of the matriculants will be in this position. The schools no longer want you, the tertiary institutions don't want you, the job market doesn't want you and the government doesn't want you. It's no coincidence that bolshie bob in his commie-addled mind pushed the skills development targets up to 6% - what he was saying is that he has no idea (and hence his government has no idea) what to do with these unemployable people. What he'll do is throw the problem back at the private sector and then accuse them of extreme racism and white monopoly capitalism when they can't do anything for them.
- The BEE Commissioner is now asking more questions from listed companies about their transformation efforts. It's all now about the degrees of blackness. Indians might as well be white now, and Coloureds aren't in a much better position.
- Perhaps we'll see a relaxing of BEE requirements. They'd better do something because what going on at the moment is anti-transformation. I still scratch my head and ask why would you set up a system that is so hard to understand. Why? Surely if you want to fix things then make it accessible to everyone.
- BEE certificates will take about 4 months to issue. This is probably on a good day. SANAS is doing us no favours.
- Those companies that got fantastic scores for procurement can expect to drop a level at the next verification. The old codes scorecards are now gone - they all expired at the end of last year. Non-compliance is pretty much the way to go now. I'm seeing this happening already.
Good luck for this year. I still occupy this piece of digital real estate and will post as regularly as I can. I see my role moving from doing the actual BEE scorecards to high-end advisory. I've done some pretty amazing stuff with my listed clients this year. I've also come up with very interesting concepts with disabled skills development. I'm almost loathe to write about these things here, I know they work and I know who they work for but I don't know that I want the awesome awdoz to know about them because she'll attempt to close them off. If you want to know more contact me and I'll come through and tell you for a fee.