To put the blame zuma solely for the mess that is South Africa is too simplistic, but we can blame him for pretty much 99% of the mess. He is a despicable specimen. Such a strange man, one who firmly believes that he is well within his rights to pilfer and plunder and his cronies are just as entitled, or to quote Ivor Chipkin (loosely) "they view this plunder as a noble thing". This is a bed that the anc made for ALL OF US TO LIE IN.
Here we are waiting until Sunday to see if zuma's ex cracks the nod or the lesser of two evils, Cyril, makes the cut. There have been a few articles in the Daily Maverick this morning on this weekend. Grootes, one journalist who I think has credibility across the political spectrum even though he's white, wrote a story this morning on the potential chaos that could erupt if zuma's ex becomes president.
A victory by Dlamini Zuma could also serve as a signal for many in the middle classes to engage in politics. Here, as in many other countries, middle-class people tend not to march. White South Africans, who generally don’t have a culture of marching, have tended to stay away from getting their feet dirty; some see attending a book launch as a supreme form of political protest. That could change. This middle-class group of people may not have the numbers to change the results of elections, but they do have significant resources, and may be exercised enough to use them.
But the problems that a Dlamini Zuma-led ANC may face in middle-class society may be nothing compared to what will happen in Parliament. The opposition parties would not be able to contain their joy upon her victory. Every opportunity in Parliament will be used. Malema will be uncontrollable, the DA will be more disruptive, and it will be, as they say, “lit”.
However, the real problems would be in the ANC’s caucus. At the moment the body that includes people who voted against Jacob Zuma is hanging together, just. Possibly the only reason Zuma stayed in office was because ANC MPs were told that they could remove him at the ANC’s conference without splitting the party. With that option no longer open, there would be no reason for them to stick to party discipline. Many tactics can be used. Instead of outright public betrayal, ANC MPs can simply be “sick” when legislation has to be passed, denying the party a quorum. Confidence votes would be excruciating for the party’s managers, and of course the opposition would call them every week. The most powerful person in the country would suddenly be the Speaker, Baleka Mbete, who could decide whether a vote should be in secret or not. And even if she kept that vote open, you may find ANC MPs angry enough to vote against Zuma, or Dlamini Zuma, whatever the working relationship the pair might opt for.
Either way, the situation would certainly be almost impossible to manage.
In the far out areas, it is entirely possible that some communities, who already question the legitimacy of the ANC and government, will do this more intensely. This means more symbols of the state could be in danger. For these communities, these include clinics, police stations and schools. Zuma already tends to avoid these protest situations; a Dlamini Zuma-led ANC would surely find them even harder to manage.
If there's one thing about Grootes' writing that is now starting to grate, it's his overuse of the word "surely". Other than that I read his opinions religiously.
There there was an opinion by Bonang Mohale, who's the CEO of Business Leadership SA, speaking about how business must participate in national renewal.
Business is society at work and to denigrate business is to denigrate a large part of the population. That is why a key pillar of our strategy is to promote the value of business as a national asset – not as an article of faith, but because it is business that will deliver the growth and transformation, without which the country has no future worth thinking of.
In short, we need a growing economy that creates jobs, fuels transformation and poverty reduction and hastens the transition to a more normalised society.
As we have also made clear, business cannot do this work alone. We need a supportive government and a supportive policy backdrop – something sorely lacking in recent years. That is why we are so focused on the critical ANC conference that takes place in the coming days.
The leadership decisions taken there will be a critical determinant in the future trajectory of the country, in determining whether business is allowed to deliver its potential, or whether we are going to see a continuation of recent years where a combination of policy incompetence and corruption have helped derail the economy.
Whoever that leader is, business stands ready to roll up its sleeves and participate, at short notice, in an urgent programme of national renewal. That willingness and ability is in no way diminished by events at MultiChoice and Steinhoff.
Businesses make mistakes and make bad judgements. It is part of the corporate condition. As appropriate, they must be held accountable. But we must not throw out the baby with the bathwater. You cannot be pro-poor and anti-business. The schadenfreude at business’s discomfort over these episodes raises questions about whether these people seriously want to address the country’s pressing social challenges.
I have worked with a large number of companies, many small, some massive. They all want to get on with business. I have yet to meet a single corporate that doesn't understand the importance of transformation in the economy. Every time this excuse for a government changes the rules they attempt to adapt. But the government now needs to walk across to them and talk to them. The trust deficit is skewed towards government's forked tongue.
Here's to a Cyril victory on Sunday and a massive cleanup of everything zuma immediately thereafter. I don't expect this weekend to be pretty.
Whilst you wait for this rather poignant moment you could while away 24 minutes watching this very significant interview with Chuck D and Tom Morello - everything anti-trump is good in my book.
Monday's post will no doubt be expletive laden - out of relief or sheer anger.
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