Happy new year. There is little doubt that last year was a little bit on the hellish side although it did improve a lot in the last few months (I have to thank Marisa for that).
I'm not up for too much of a dissection of last year, but I do need to say that the chickens did return when most BEE deals ended up looking a little worse for wear, or to quote Nomkhita Nqweni "black economic empowerment transactions, most of them vendor-financed, face serious challenges". No shit Sheerluck.
It had to happen - our economy was booming along like the proverbial red-faced bass drummer in a marching band and there was no way anyone was going to purchase shares outright - the dividends would cover that. Then there was a suggestion that perhaps the government should bail them out. It was at this point that my old mate jungle jim and Iactually agreed on something.
Now for 2009.
I can't say that things are going to look much different this year.
- The Financial Sector Charter will be gazetted under section 9 because there is too much invested in it to allow it to disappear.
- The codes will not be changed in spite of the noises from the ANC. We've only just got used to the codes, and even I have to admit that they are not as bad as I initially thought they would be, even if they were designed for a boom economy - red-faced drumming anyone?
- There will be a plethora of industry charters gazetted under section 12 and 9.3. Good luck to them, they stand very little chance of making it to section 9. Some consultants will make a tidy little sum out of their drafting.
- BEE scorecards will still be a tick-box requirement. On this point I think that it must be stated that only under very extreme circumstances does the actual score enhance a company's chances of getting business. I have dealt with all sorts of companies over the last five years and very few of them (if any) have actually lost business because of their score. They have struggled to get new business because they don't have a scorecard. So don't believe certain ill-informed BEE "experts" who declare that a better score will get you more business.
- The PPPFA and B-BBEE - no change. I spoke to Kevin Lester about this and his recommendation is that they run in parallel. Alignment is almost impossible under our constitution.
- Verification agencies and accreditation. Ho hum. Can't see it happening before the elections. On this subject if you haven't gone on Kevin's verification manual course please do yourself a favour and attend the next one.
- Government and BEE. Going nowhere slowly - or should I quote Messrs Lennon and McCartney "You and me Sunday driving, Not arriving........."
And what else
- The end of entitlement. Deals are not going to be as prevalent as they were in the past. The wanna-be usual suspects are going to have to learn to work for their money. I know that MTN has announced a major deal, I suspect this will be the exception this year. As it is the ANC seems to want to see more happening at the bottom end of the economy. I don't know if I wrote about a certain young man who walked into a large company in Sandton and insisted that he be included in their pending deal. The person who told me the story was shocked at the patent greed and sense of entitlement. To the best on my knowledge he didn't cut it.
- Last year will be the last year of good BEE scores. The codes are going to show their true mettle this year when budgets and allocations are slashed - this is one thing that the codes need to look at.
- BEE consultants worth their salt will need to assist companies in maintaining their BEE status by reducing their expenditure - it can be done you know.
- And Empowerdex is going to lose its market share to NERA. Already I have noticed that the larger corporates are using NERA more and more.
Keep your heads down and good luck for this year.
Comments